Subjective and Objective Probability
In this chapter, we revisit some topics previously discussed in the insightful book by Kazem Sadegh-Zadeh[1], which tackles the problem of the logic of medical language. We adapt their content to our clinical case of Mary Poppins, aiming to keep our understanding more relevant to dental contexts.
Events that are both random and subjectively uncertain are considered probable; therefore, causality and uncertainty are approached as qualitative, comparative, or quantitative probabilities.
To clarify this concept, let's use the example of Mary Poppins. A doctor, after hearing her symptoms, could state that:
- Mary Poppins is probably suffering from TMDs (qualitative term).
- Mary Poppins is more likely to have TMDs than neuropathic OP (comparative term: the number of diagnosed cases of TMDs vs. neuropathic OP).
- The probability that Mary Poppins has TMDs is 0.15 (quantitative term, relative to the population).
Subjective Probability
In contexts of human subjective uncertainty, probabilistic, qualitative, comparative, and/or quantitative data can be interpreted by clinicians as measures of subjective uncertainty, to make 'states of conviction' numerically representable.
For instance, stating "the probability that Mary Poppins is affected by TMDs is 0.15 of the cases" is akin to saying "with a 15% degree of belief, I think that Mary Poppins is affected by TMDs"; indicating that the degree of conviction corresponds to the degree of subjective probability.
Objective Probability
Conversely, events and random processes cannot be accurately described by deterministic processes in the form 'if A then B'. Statistics are utilized to quantify the frequency of the association between A and B, representing their relationship as a degree of probability, which introduces the concept of objective probability.
Amid the increasing acknowledgment of the role of probabilization of uncertainty and randomness in medicine since the eighteenth century, the term "probability" has become an integral part of medical language, methodology, and epistemology. Unfortunately, the distinction between subjective and objective probability is not always clearly made in medicine, as is the case in other disciplines too. Nevertheless, the vital contribution of probability theory in medicine, especially in concepts of probability in etiology, epidemiology, diagnostics, and therapy, lies in its aid in understanding and representing biological causality.
- ↑ Sadegh-Zadeh Kazem, «Handbook of Analytic Philosophy of Medicine», Springer, 2012, Dordrecht».
ISBN: 978-94-007-2259-0
DOI:10.1007/978-94-007-2260-6